Ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a United Nations analysis of the latest national climate plans has a clear message: the world is moving forward to tackle the climate catastrophe, but not fast enough. This ambition gap is a sobering reminder that progress must now urgently accelerate and be supported, in cities, regions, and communities where climate policy turns into climate reality.
National governments are submitting stronger, more comprehensive climate plans than ever before, but the collective ambition still falls short of what’s needed to keep the Paris Agreement goal within reach, according to the 2025 Synthesis Report on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), published on 28 October 2025, by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC. The collective effect of the current submissions isn’t enough to hold warming to 1.5°C or even reliably below 2°C, according to the report.
The UN’s report marks the first cycle of “NDC 3.0,” covering plans that look beyond 2030 and align with the Paris Agreement’s first Global Stocktake – with many NDCs setting 2035 targets. Encouragingly, it finds that nearly all new or updated NDCs reference non-Party stakeholders, which include subnational entities, civil society, and businesses, as partners in implementation.
This reflects a growing recognition that climate ambition can’t be achieved from national capitals alone. They need to be matched by implementation from cities, states, and regions that are already leading the way on key sectors, such as transport, buildings, waste, and energy systems, which account for the majority of global emissions. While nations commit to climate targets, it is often local authorities that must deliver them. It is at a local level that such climate action can deliver on people’s needs in a fair and just manner.
As the UNFCCC Secretariat notes, many of the latest NDCs are adopting “whole-of-economy, whole-of-society” approaches, a positive sign that multilevel governance is starting to take root. For the first time, national climate commitments are reflecting the reality that success depends on every level of government working together.
Nowhere is this collaboration more visible than through initiatives like the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships (CHAMP), endorsed by nearly 80 countries. The CHAMP framework calls for national and subnational governments to work together to accelerate implementation.
The 2025 NDC Synthesis Report shows this approach is gaining traction. The analysis covers 64 NDCs submitted so far, which represent a third of all countries and a third of global emissions. Of these, about half come from countries that have formally endorsed CHAMP, and several explicitly reference local or regional contributions to national targets but also go into detail about how local actions need to be resourced and funded.
Overall, four out of five plans referenced subnational entities, an increase of 19 percent compared with their previous NDCs, while about two-thirds recognized them as partners in planning, implementing, and monitoring climate action, in some cases having their roles defined through frameworks that enable them to undertake local planning activities and implementation.
This momentum should be celebrated and expanded. Multilevel partnerships can turn ambition into implementation by aligning planning and investment across national, regional, and city levels; scaling finance and making it more reliable and accessible for cities and local governments to deliver on climate commitments; and building institutional capacity to plan, track, and report progress at the subnational level.
Examples already show this in action. Brazil is pioneering “climate federalism,” aligning state and municipal plans with national decarbonization goals; Colombia has integrated city-level climate actions into its NDC, recognizing urban innovation as a national asset; Kenya’s counties are developing localized climate plans under the national NDC framework.
While the 2025 NDC Synthesis Report confirms that ambition gaps remain wide, it also underscores that the foundation for implementation is stronger than ever.
Cities stand ready to close that gap. Across both C40 Cities and the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy (GCoM), mayors and local officials are already delivering policies that align with or exceed their national governments’ commitments, from zero-emission transport corridors to climate-resilient infrastructure and green jobs strategies.
The new UNFCCC analysis sends a positive signal: countries are increasingly recognizing that climate success depends on partnership. With more NDCs on the way, we remain hopeful that this trend will continue. The challenge ahead is not only to strengthen national ambition but to make implementation a shared enterprise – across ministries, states, municipalities, cities, and their communities alike – and mayors stand ready to collaborate.
Attention at COP30 will be on how nations can deliver on their promises. While cities and mayors are ready to play their part, we’re calling for stronger recognition and integration of subnational leadership in global climate governance. This means, for example, ensuring that the COP decisions explicitly acknowledge the vital role of cities, states, and regions in delivering the Paris Agreement and implementing NDCs, and establishing formal mechanisms to institutionalise multilevel collaboration.
It also means the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap must plot a pathway to scaling up finance and making it more reliable and accessible for cities, especially in the Global South and particularly for adaptation. Together, these measures aim to close the implementation gap by making cities full partners in shaping and delivering global climate ambition.
With the right partnerships, finance, and trust, local leadership can help close the climate ambition gap and build a livable, resilient future for all.