- New study finds ten cities alone across three continents, from Bogotá (Colombia) and Amman (Jordan) to Freetown (Sierra Leone) and Karachi (Pakistan) should prepare for significant climate migration in coming years.
- Research shows scale of climate migration will be greatly reduced if Paris Agreement targets are met.
- Findings highlight the need for cities to be given the right powers and resources to address climate migration to avoid economic and social disruption.
New research by C40 Cities and the Mayors Migration Council has set out the scale and impact of climate migration to cities across Africa, South America and southern Asia over the next quarter of a century.
The findings show that up to 8 million people are likely to move to the ten cities identified in the report by 2050 as a result of the climate crisis alone, exacerbating existing trends of migration towards cities.
The first-of-its-kind analysis studied the projected impact of climate breakdown on internal migration for ten cities across three continents: Bogotá, Curitiba, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Amman, Karachi, Dhaka, Accra and Freetown. Despite their vast geographic and demographic differences, all ten will need to prepare to receive significant inward climate migration over the next 25 years.
It shouldn’t just be cities in the Global South leading the charge—global cooperation is essential. – C40 Cities Co-Chair, MMC Leadership Board Member and Mayor of Freetown, Yvonne Aki Sawyerr
While all cities in the research are projected to receive climate migrants, the intensity will vary in line with projected increases in global heating. In a scenario in which the world fails to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets of keeping global heating under 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels:
- Karachi could receive as many as 2.3 million domestic climate migrants by 2050.
- Cities like Bogotá, Rio de Janeiro and Karachi could see a threefold increase in the number of climate migrants compared to scenarios where Paris Agreement targets are met.
- Many cities including Freetown and Amman – as primary economic hubs for the country – are expected to receive at least half of all people moving due to climate breakdown within the country.
| City | Current Population | Potential internal climate migrants by 2050 if 1.5 °C benchmark surpassed |
|---|---|---|
| Accra (Ghana) | 3 million | 339k |
| Amman (Jordan) | 3.5 million | 554k |
| Bogotá (Colombia) | 8 million | 598k |
| Curitiba (Brazil) | 2 million | 191k |
| Dhaka (Bangladesh) | 12 million | 3.07 million |
| Freetown (Sierra Leone) | 1.3 million | 269k |
| Karachi (Pakistan) | 15.5 million | 2.4 million |
| Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) | 6.6 million | 294k |
| Salvador (Brazil) | 2.4 million | 198k |
| São Paulo (Brazil) | 11.8 million | 618k |
This research has, for the first time, looked into the type of climate impacts that will drive migrants to cities. These include reduced crop yields, sea levels rising and extreme weather events such as floods and wildfires. Researchers found that in every country, multiple, overlapping climate factors which put homes and livelihoods at risk are the main drivers of climate migration to cities.
800 million jobs are at risk globally due to the impacts of the climate crisis and unplanned green transitions. Globally, migrants are also playing an essential and under-recognised role today in cities and sectors that are critical to the green transition, including construction, waste management and transport, but face challenges accessing opportunities and decent jobs. Meanwhile, no country has a domestic workforce ready to support its green transition efforts (IOE).
Additional research to be published later this month by C40 Cities, Emerson Collective’s Climate Migration Council (CMC), and the Mayors Migration Council in a new policy brief, shows migrants will bring essential skills to these 10 cities, often in agriculture and primary industries that are key for adaptation, nature-based solutions and new urban bio-economies that many of the cities’ studied are already ramping up, as part of their climate action plans. It highlights more than 30 examples of city-led actions to drive the creation of good green jobs for all – including migrants and refugees – while developing a green, diverse and inclusive workforce.
Vittoria Zanuso, Executive Director of the Mayors Migration Council, said: “Whether supporting green microenterprises in Freetown or integrating migrant waste workers into cooperatives in Accra, city leaders show what inclusive climate action looks like in practice. City leadership can turn climate migration from a crisis into an opportunity.”
These findings clearly show that cities are central to managing new climate migration in a way that is beneficial to urban communities and economies and to transform global challenges into critical economic, environmental and social opportunities, but they need the right support and recognition to do so.
C40 Cities Co-Chair, MMC Leadership Board Member, and Mayor of Freetown, Yvonne Aki Sawyerr, said: “As Mayor of Freetown and in my roles as Co-Chair of C40 Cities and member of the MMC Leadership Board, I am committed to drawing attention to the critical issue of climate migration. Between 2016 and 2021, 43 million children were displaced by extreme weather events worldwide, highlighting the urgent need to address climate migration, especially in the Global South. Yet, only 8% of the US$5 trillion required annually for urban climate action is available.
“It shouldn’t just be cities in the Global South leading the charge—global cooperation is essential. That’s why through my role, I will continue to work with cities worldwide to advocate for increased investment and support to protect Freetown’s communities and the many communities in developing countries that are adversely impacted by climate change.”